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Behind the Hat with John Naisbitt
Is this a hat or an elephant in
a boa constrictor?
Your response, according to John Naisbitt,
depends on a crucial element: your mindset. Naisbitt is the renowned
author of the international bestseller, Megatrends, which
has been credited for accurately predicting current global trends
since it was first published in 1982. It was his unique mindset
that allowed Naisbitt to predict the transformation of the United
States from an industrial to an informational society, and the creation
and use of the Internet.
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JAIMS hosted a special forum in Honolulu
on January 20 where Naisbitt described his mindset to hundreds
of select business leaders, politicians, and academics in
attendance. To do so, he referred to a quote from Antoine
de Saint-Exupéry’s children’s book, The
Little Prince: “One sees clearly only with the
heart. Anything essential is invisible to the eyes.”
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Futurist and Author, John Naisbitt |
It is a balance between our heart and mind,
Naisbitt suggested, that allows us to see things as they truly are
rather than as superficial interpretations.
His new book to be published this year, The
Elephant in the Boa Constrictor, borrows its title from the
story of the Little Prince. Whereas the Little Prince was able to
look at a child’s drawing and see it for what it was –
an elephant in a boa constrictor – adults were only able to
interpret it as a drawing of a hat.
It’s these false impressions –
these “hats” – which dominate our current media,
said Naisbitt. Opinion and agenda shape the information we read,
see, and hear. As an example, Naisbitt pointed to the media’s
resulting “obsession” with terrorism after 9/11.
“Terrorism is not reshaping the direction
the world is headed…” he said, “Behind the hats,
the world is moving on and what is happening is more important and
of greater impact.”
Behind the hats, said Naisbitt, is the world
“regrouping at a higher level.” We are in a time of
digesting, extending, and perfecting the technological and geopolitical
breakthroughs we’ve seen in the last years of the twentieth
century: the Internet, biotechnology, nanotechnology, and the rise
of the new China.
According to Naisbitt, it will also be quite
a while before we see “the next big thing.” Instead,
we are in a period of incremental evolutionary change.
This incremental change can be seen in the evolutionary
transformation of globalism. To Naisbitt, 21st century globalism
means decentralization, a process he originally predicted in Megatrends.
“Simultaneous globalization and decentralization
are the twin paths of the world’s future and that is where
the world is headed,” he said, “At once the global economy
is growing while the component parts are becoming more and more
numerous, and more and more important.”
Understanding this process is imperative for
seeing the whole picture behind the hat. The global economy is impossible
to fully comprehend with its infinitely complex structure, said
Naisbitt, but we should trust the process anyway. If the global
economy is incomprehensible, it is also uncontrollable and that
is the opportunity.
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John Naisbitt
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Naisbitt cited the example
of China’s unprecedented growth in the past two decades.
As a faculty member at the Nanjing University in China, Naisbitt
has observed the expansion of this economic giant first-hand.
More and more, he sees the decentralization of China’s
global economy fueled by the emerging class of entrepreneurs.
Many cities in China are developing
their own international airports to compete with one another
and in the process, escaping control of the central government
in Beijing. As Naisbitt sees it, China is regrouping at
a higher level and it is flourishing.
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In the United States, voters watched candidates
in the 2004 presidential elections carefully fielding questions on
the decentralization of our own economy in the form of two seemingly
innocent words: offshore outsourcing.
At the forum, Naisbitt freely expressed his
strong perspective on the matter. He questioned why, according to
U.S. public sentiment, it was okay for professional sports teams
to offshore talent, but it was considered an outrage for U.S. companies
to offshore cheap labor for menial tasks?
There is a simple answer, according to Naisbitt:
“[offshoring for sports talent] helps our team win.”
As Naisbitt sees it, the same thing is true economically for businesses.
“When we offshore talent, it helps our
companies win, it’s no different,” he said “That
ought to be celebrated.”
Offshore outsourcing,
he said, is also regrouping at a higher level. Naisbitt defined
this new era as the “mass customization of talent.”
Companies and organizations – much like professional sports
teams – will draw specialized talent at from all over the
world in a greater capacity. There will be more competition among
offshore talent making them better and ultimately more desirable
and necessary.
“With talent becoming an interchangeable
global commodity, education assumes paramount position…”
said Naisbitt. “In today’s global economy it becomes
the number one economic priority.”
Though he concluded briefly on the topic of
education, it left the greatest impression upon the forum participants.
The following panel and question-and-answer session focused heavily
on the rejuvenated impetus for quality education.
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