January 26, 2004

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HONOLULU—China has the eyes of the world casting sidelong glances at it in anxious anticipation. Who knew the giant in Asia would awaken to a growth spurt of monumental proportions? Not anyone, and not Dr. William Fischer.

Though Fischer is one of the world’s most knowledgeable experts in Chinese economic reform, he acknowledges that no one—including himself—could predict the incredible growth of China in recent years.

Over a span of three days from January 5 through 7, Fischer spoke with JEMBA and CHEMBA students at JAIMS and to local business leaders at his seminar on the “Emerging China.”

Fischer provided a framework to approach key issues in the Chinese commercial arena, and an overview of China’s recent economic and commercial experiences. He pointed out that China’s development from 1979 to the present might be the biggest story of the twentieth century.

Though China was the “world’s factory” in the 1990s, China is now the world’s technology creator and will soon be the world’s soft-power force in the areas of media, sports, and movie industries, he said.

There are already companies playing a major role in the global market according to Fischer: Haier, Tsingtao Beer, Bao Steel, China Mobile HK & Huawei, China Eastern, China Southern & Air China, PetroChina and SinoPec, Huaneng Power, Beijing Datong & Shangdong International Power, Legend & Founder, Shanghai Jahwa, Changhong, Wahaha, Yuan Da, COSCO, and TCL.

China is a huge economy in a great stage of flux, says Fischer, but there is a long way to go before China is to compete in foreign markets on the basis of know-how, know-why, and/or know-when. It does, however, have the power to compete successfully on the basis of low wages in most world markets.

China’s competitive sophistication is growing daily, says Fischer, yet the Chinese consumer has changed profoundly, and it is not clear that Chinese firms are prepared to serve that consumer in an effective fashion.

On SARS, Fischer stated that it was a wake-up call for China, but the real challenge will be HIV/Aids.

China is the giant growing to immense stature in the global economy, but not without its growing pains and challenges. No one can truly predict what lies ahead for China in the next ten years, but one thing can be sure: Dr. William Fischer will be there watching.

Dr. William Fischer is a professor of Technology Management at IMD. During 1998 and 1999, he was the executive president and dean of the leading business school in China - China Europe International Business School (CEIBS), in Shanghai, a joint venture supported by the European Union. In 1980, Dr. Fischer participated in a joint US government-Chinese government venture, in Dalian, which provided managerial training to senior-level Chinese officials. Since that time, he has remained consistently involved in the Chinese reform experience, including consulting for a variety of multinational corporations, government agencies (both U.S. and Chinese), and international aid agencies. He has visited China professionally on an annual basis since 1980, and has written extensively on the Chinese economic reforms.